· 2 min read
What is a weighted sales pipeline? (with a worked example)
Weighted pipeline = deal value × win probability. Learn how it works, a worked example, where the probabilities come from and the common mistakes.
Your pipeline value is the sum of all open deals. It is useful, but it is optimistic: it assumes every deal will close. A weighted pipeline adjusts each deal by how likely it is to close.
Weighted value = deal value × win probability
A worked example
| Deal | Stage | Value | Probability | Weighted value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office fit-out | Proposal | $12,000 | 50% | $6,000 |
| Print service | Qualified | $15,600 | 25% | $3,900 |
| Ergonomic assessment | Negotiation | $1,500 | 75% | $1,125 |
| IT bundle | Lead | $3,200 | 10% | $320 |
| Total | $32,300 | $11,345 |
The gross pipeline says $32,300; the weighted pipeline says $11,345. Neither is "the answer": the gross number shows potential, the weighted number is a more realistic planning figure.
(Figures from a fictional example company.)
Where do the probabilities come from?
The simplest approach is a default probability per stage (for example Lead 10%, Qualified 25%, Proposal 50%, Negotiation 75%). Everyone uses the same scale, so numbers are comparable across salespeople. Review the percentages every few months against what actually happened: if only a third of your "Proposal" deals are won, 50% is too generous.
Add time: forecast by close date
A weighted total becomes a forecast when you group it by expected close date: what's weighted to close this week, in 30 days, in 90 days. Two cautions:
- Periods that overlap (next 30 days, next 60 days) must not be added together.
- Deals without a close date silently drop out, so keep close dates filled in and realistic.
Common mistakes
- Stale deals keep inflating the pipeline. Close them as lost when they go cold.
- Close dates in the past on open deals: fix them weekly.
- Changing probabilities per deal by gut feeling, which makes the forecast impossible to compare over time.
- Confusing bookings with revenue. A won deal is a sales booking; revenue recognition is an accounting matter.
How Zyrft shows it
Zyrft calculates gross and weighted value for open deals by expected close date (today, tomorrow, next 7, 30, 60, 90 and 120 days, and 6–9 months) on the Pro plan, using each stage's default probability. Every number links to the deals behind it. How the forecast works · Start free
Written by the Zyrft team. Examples use fictional companies; this article uses no external statistics.